Christopher Bouzy
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thread 1/7
This is a quick thread on why you should ignore polls a year before an election. Polls are snapshots in time, and with politics, a year might as well be a century. But even if we ignore the fact the election is a year away, the current polls are simply not reliable. So let's break it down.
01:28 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 2/7
In 2016, Trump barely won Michigan with 10,704 votes. In 2020, Biden won Michigan with 154,188 votes.

After Jan 6th and four indictments, certain individuals want you to believe Trump is leading Biden in a Democratic-led state he barely won in 2016 and lost in 2020. Trump isn't +5 in Michigan.
01:28 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 3/7
In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania with 44,292 votes. In 2020, Biden won Pennsylvania with 81,660 votes.

Like Michigan, Trump barely won in 2016 and lost in 2020, and that was before Jan 6th, the indictments, and the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade.
01:28 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 4/7
In March, Trump's Georgia trial will begin, and it will be televised. Americans will hear what he did from his close advisors and lawyers. Whether he is convicted or not by Election Day will not matter; the reality then versus now will be significantly different.
01:28 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 5/7
Yes, there is a chance Trump can escape justice and go unscathed before Election Day. There is also a chance people can stay home and not vote for Biden because of his foreign policy. I recently warned about this scenario. However, I would still rather be Biden than Trump on Election Day.
01:28 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 6/7
The point of this thread is simple. Do not let polls discourage you, nor do not let polls make you panic. Pundits are using these early polls to "prove" Democrats need to replace Biden before it's too late, but these polls prove nothing. Let's ask some basic fundamental questions.
01:28 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 7/7
Did Trump gain significant inroads with Black voters?

Did Trump improve his numbers with Independents?

Did Trump improve his support among young voters?

Is Trump doing better with women since Roe v. Wade was overturned?

The answer is no to all of these questions.
01:33 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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LadyLigeia
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Thank you for this Chris. I was just discussing the polling with a relative and I mentioned how I would like to hear your take on them. Relative attended rally in DC yesterday and said anti-Biden sentiment was strong in crowd (understandable given its demographics). I hope he can turn this around
05:44 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Bert D
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Every poll is an advert and a hook. I don’t care of it’s a Conservative or Liberal leaning one. The elections are won or lost at the polling station, not on paper punditry!

If you don’t believe it, trump is a prime example! Even the polls in our heads told us “no way”

Do you part, vote.
05:11 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Carol Nelson
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Thank you so much for posting about polls. I never pay attention to them because many are misleading.
04:36 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Jennifer Moore Baker
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Thank you! A little louder for the people in the back!
04:36 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
https://spoutible.com/thre... I made this thread earlier which compliments your take well I think.
02:48 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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JayGo VOTE BLUE
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Christopher, this polling stuff has me crazy and it's only the beginning. Why can't they at least say 76% OF THE PEOPLE POLLED? They try so hard to portray that the whole nation has spoken. The upside may be that MAGA thinks they have it in the bag and won't bother voting.
02:43 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Niki S. RN
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Thanks! I look to you for intelligent explanations. Then I can sleep at night!😎
02:10 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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BTSdaily7 (sporadic;)
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Absolutely agree with this entire thread. And media will be amplifying Tuesdays results likely as Bad For Biden™ regardless of outcomes. It’s very important to focus on NOW - for everyone like-minded to vote in these elections on/before Tuesday! Like-minded folks in your life need to vote too!
02:05 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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MaxxMilly Browne 808
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
🎯
01:58 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Eddie Stewart
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Excellent post. The same factors that caused Trump to lose are still there and have increased. Everyone stay focused and know that the Oligarchy (Corporations, mainly White Nationalist headed corporations) WANT to create the narrative that Biden is unelectable. They want YOU underfoot.
01:57 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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MaxxMilly Browne 808
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In response to Eddie Stewart.
100% Eddie, they are actively trying to undermine democracy.
02:00 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Paula Egan
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In response to Eddie Stewart.
Yep, that’s why gas prices are high.
That’s why everything has been criminally inflated.
“They” are scared of regulations, of consequences to their corporate policies, their inaction, their negligence, etc.
They want all of us voters (D, R, I) angry and afraid and to think it is Biden’s fault.
07:30 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Ellee Koss
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Thank you! Also many do not know how to analyze the biases in the questions nor the samples. And then there is the margin of error which goes to the heart of accuracy of prediction.
01:31 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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