Christopher Bouzy
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thread 1/5
Recent polls and "expert" opinions have been bleak about Biden's chances for reelection. However, recent elections and other critical data suggest a challenging scenario for the Republicans. In short, the Republicans have reasons to panic.
02:56 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 2/5
In the recent Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, only 110,298 votes were cast, compared to 186,932 in 2016. This significant drop of 76,634 votes might suggest reduced enthusiasm despite some attributing it to weather conditions.
02:56 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Christopher Bouzy
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Adding to Republican concerns, nearly half of Nikki Haley's Iowa backers are reportedly ready to choose Biden over Trump. This trend, if mirrored in other states, could spell trouble for the GOP, whether through a shift in allegiance or reduced voter turnout.
02:56 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 4/5
In Florida, Democrats overturned a previously Republican-dominated seat, with Tom Keen securing approximately 70 percent of independent votes. This demographic is vital for Democrats in November. A repeat of this trend in other states could pose a serious threat to Republican prospects.
02:56 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Christopher Bouzy
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Lastly, Biden and the Democrats raised $100 million at the end of 2023. The narrative that Democrats are in trouble is just simply false based on the data and the facts on the ground. If turnout is also low in New Hampshire, then it could be an early indicator that Republican enthusiasm is low.
02:56 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Zonker Harris
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
preach it cbouzy. and while trump pulled off a lucky and flukey win in 2016 (in great part due to GOP’s ruthless voter disenfranchisement) we’ve seen who is is now. he’s declining fast and the worst is still to come. in the end, trump will die in his mar-a-bunker and will take the GOP with him.
04:11 AM - Feb 14, 2024
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Stephen Cullum
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In response to Zonker Harris.
With an ankle bracelet. I do not think he will actually be put in real prison . Most people of his age would not .
05:31 PM - Feb 14, 2024
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AndrewFaze
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
The desperation of the news media (including Fox, MSNBC, CNN, NYTimes) for a Trump campaign and presidency is palpable.
11:23 AM - Jan 22, 2024
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Angela P.
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Please do this in audio the way you did a while back
07:40 PM - Jan 21, 2024
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Bob - Garden is Life
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Two metrics I want to watch in the Republican primary season.

1) Turnout levels, as Christopher indicates
2) Even more important IMO is to see if the turnout ratio of men/women changes from 2016. I have a theory that you will see a drop in enthusiasm with GOP women not matched by the men.
01:06 PM - Jan 19, 2024
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ChiTownSidBrown
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
The same folks who cover elections take the same approach as sports coverage; even if a team/ player is vastly superior and has shown that consistently, the need to manufacture the increased probability of a close contest is more about driving interest in consuming more media is the goal.
09:52 AM - Jan 19, 2024
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Art D
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Their front runner is drying up faster than a sun dried tomato. Time to step on the gas and mow them all down.
12:17 AM - Jan 19, 2024
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Marilyn White
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Thanks for the encouraging words m
11:58 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Mary Cole
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I keep telling myself that Winston Churchill once famously observed that Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else. Only. So are we done with that for the nonce? 🙄
06:16 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Melinda Nowikowski
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
My guess is the "expert" opinions largely are based on polls (many of which are commissioned by the GOP to skew overall averages) and "vibes." I won't panic unless aggregates of polling and special elections start going badly the wrong way.
04:46 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Anton Brakhage
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In response to Melinda Nowikowski.
At the end of the day, the most important indicator to me is actual election results. And Democrats have been performing very well in those. Yes, things can change in 9 and a half months. But for now, I feel as confident as I can when 40% of the country is aligned with insurrectionist fascists.
06:44 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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R o K p h i s h
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
November 4th, 2020
04:12 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Bren
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Good news and I'm sticking to it. 🔵 💙
03:55 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Tania King
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
03:28 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Bandele Ganiyu
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I don't trust polls, they said the same thing in 2020 'red wave' it didn't happen. republicans across the board lost The only poll that matters is election day
03:02 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Wahu Matenjwa
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In response to Bandele Ganiyu.
What will the consequences be if Trump loses? I am curious about this as January 06 came with insurrection!
03:43 PM - Jan 18, 2024
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Bandele Ganiyu
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In response to Bandele Ganiyu.
I mean the red wave in 2022, not 2020.
01:47 PM - Jan 20, 2024
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