Christopher Bouzy
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thread 1/3
Ignore the polls, the pundits, and the media noise because Trump and the GOP are in trouble. With each passing state primary, we gain valuable data, and Trump has a serious problem among a significant segment of Republican voters. What we are witnessing is the complete opposite of the polls.
10:18 AM - Feb 28, 2024
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 2/3
If even a mere 10% of Republican voters don't vote or choose Biden, it would spell disaster for the GOP. States like North Carolina and Florida would flip blue, possibly even Texas. This is exacerbated by Trump and the GOP facing substantial challenges in winning over Independent voters.
10:18 AM - Feb 28, 2024
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 3/3
Without robust support from both Republicans and Independents, Trump's chances of victory diminish significantly. Fact: Trump is underperforming polls, while Democrats are overperforming polls.

The polls are wrong, and the data proves it. Trump and the GOP are in trouble.
10:18 AM - Feb 28, 2024
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Jasra - no DMs
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
The following analysis seems to agree with you. And so do I. 😊 https://open.substack.com/...
09:12 AM - Feb 29, 2024
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NathanJCaboose
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I hope you're right. Especially after that 100,000+ vote turnout for "uncommitted" last night.
08:25 PM - Feb 28, 2024
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John Luttermoser
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I'm a chronic worrier, about everything. One of my concerns here is that the Rethugs don't bring their voter-suppression A game during the primaries. I'll say I wouldn't put anything past them, but they still pulled things on Election Day in 2020 and, for that matter, in 2000, that surprised me.
12:47 PM - Feb 28, 2024
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Kevin Hilbiber
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
12:24 PM - Feb 28, 2024
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Chris Puttick
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Do you have theory about what's skewing the polls in that way? UK uses "likely voters" but we only vote for local MP; sometimes that gets skewed when the unlikely voters turn up. Sounds maybe the opposite problem for Trump?
11:47 AM - Feb 28, 2024
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Al Gray
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
It feels like republicans won't galvanize behind trump since the MSM keeps telling them Biden is doomed anyway.
10:55 AM - Feb 28, 2024
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Derek Croucher
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
You always brighten my day!
10:52 AM - Feb 28, 2024
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