Peter
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thread 1/8
Wanted to put a little thread together regarding approximately what RUS fortifications look like in the south, and what UKR is up against. Again, this is not reality it’s an approximation, OSINT/satellite imagery, and reality is very likely worse. Good enough for our purposes though.
12:00 AM - Jul 15, 2023
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Peter
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thread 2/8
If you head north, and slightly east from Melitopol, you will see a large red circle. That’s Tokmak, and that’s what UKR wants real bad. If you blow up the image you can see how intensely fortified that area is.
12:03 AM - Jul 15, 2023
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Peter
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thread 3/8
If you look just north of Tokmak you will see a thick red line, I’m quite certain that is the main second line of Defense, and it is hardened. That is where I think UKR has just butted up against in Robotyne, or very close to it.
12:05 AM - Jul 15, 2023
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Peter
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thread 4/8
Now look south of Tokmak, and again not suggesting it looks as sparse as that in real life, but for sure, RUS fortifications thin out dramatically in the south past Tokmak. RUS is forward deployed and I’ve seen more than few professionals notice the same.
12:07 AM - Jul 15, 2023
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Peter
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thread 5/8
Now look west towards the Dnipro, all along the south of Dnipro. RUS fortifications are almost non-existent, and that would make sense because before the dam got blown that entire river and flood basin was essentially impassible.
12:12 AM - Jul 15, 2023
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Peter
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thread 6/8
Here is the thing, if UKR can figure out how to cross the Dnipro in force, well, it’s pretty much a straight shot to the gateway of Crimea. 50-70 kms depending on where they cross. And RUS simply cannot fortify this area sufficiently, lacking resources but most importantly time.
12:17 AM - Jul 15, 2023
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Peter
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thread 7/8
Final observation, by pressing hard along the southern front in widely dispersed areas of contact, I count 4, UKR is trying to pin RUS reserve forces there, thereby removing the option to reallocate west to protect the Dnipro -> Crimea axis.
12:32 AM - Jul 15, 2023
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Peter
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thread 8/8
one more cause I’m on a roll. Note the far western flank up against flood bank south of Zap, more a swamp now. Was speculating last night, sure would be pretty slick if UKR could manage to hug that coast line and then move west. However, look at RUS fortifications, they totally predicted that.
12:56 AM - Jul 15, 2023
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Tom Munderwear
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Nicely Done
In response to Peter.
02:47 PM - Jul 19, 2023
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Peter
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In response to Tom Munderwear.
🙏🏻
02:47 PM - Jul 19, 2023
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