Alex Carey
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Seeing panic about this CNN poll. A few things to take seriously, and why calm is advised:

1) not necessarily an R oversample, assumes neutral political environment of D+0/ R+0

2) objectively not a good poll for Biden

3) in our system, GOP always has a chance nationally

SOME TAKEAWAYS...
08:36 AM - Sep 07, 2023
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Alex Carey
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...

1) I don't buy the neutral environment. 2022 was neutral, and most people are disengaged a year out from a presidential election

2) Biden only wins nonwhites like 57-30something in here, which if that was the case, would indicate larger GOP margins!

3) special elex results have been...
08:38 AM - Sep 07, 2023
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Alex Carey
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...Dem overperformances anywhere from D+4 to D+8 since Roe was overturned.

In short, take the poll seriously, but always check the crosstabs and underlying numbers! A year of campaigning (that the other guy is gonna spend a lot of in court) is a long time! Stay calm, prepare, fight well!
08:40 AM - Sep 07, 2023
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