Christopher Bouzy
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thread 1/10
This three-part series provides a comprehensive analysis of the media's impact on electoral outcomes, the problems with polling, and my forecasts for 2024. This first thread delves into the 2016 election and examines the significant influence of news outlets in the rise and election of Donald Trump.
12:00 PM - Sep 11, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 2/10
It has been widely discussed that the Russian government played a role in influencing the 2016 presidential election. However, it is equally important to consider the impact of the media coverage during that time. I would argue that the media influenced the outcome and handed Trump the presidency.
12:00 PM - Sep 11, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 3/10
Several cable news networks provided significant airtime to Trump, during which he repeatedly presented false statements that were not immediately fact-checked. Both Fox News and MSNBC featured Trump weekly, and this constant media exposure helped normalize Trump and legitimize his presidential run.
12:01 PM - Sep 11, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 4/10
At the same time, these networks prioritized coverage of Hillary Clinton's email server, the ensuing investigation, and the hacked emails. Although the authenticity of these hacked materials was never conclusively verified, they were still given significant airtime for discussion.
12:01 PM - Sep 11, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 5/10
WikiLeaks relied on the media to disseminate the hacked materials to the US electorate. Without media coverage, WikiLeaks' reach would've been limited. Media outlets played a key role in propagating the "Crooked Hillary" narrative surrounding Hillary Clinton, thereby shaping public perception.
12:02 PM - Sep 11, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 6/10
While the "Crooked Hillary" narrative flooded the airwaves, another prevailing narrative emerged in the media suggesting her assured victory. Numerous news outlets consistently released polls indicating Hillary Clinton's comfortable lead, implying a Hillary win was inevitable.
12:02 PM - Sep 11, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 7/10
The perception that "Hillary Clinton is untrustworthy" combined with the notion that "Hillary is likely to win regardless" influenced a segment of voters in crucial states, prompting many to stay home. Yes, media dynamics influenced the 2016 election, and similar patterns persist post-2016.
12:05 PM - Sep 11, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 8/10
The 2022 midterms highlighted the media's reliance on junk polls and biased commentary. Many in the press seemed too eager to amplify a GOP-driven narrative of an impending "red wave," even when valid data suggested otherwise. Now we see it happening again with Biden's age and his "likeability."
12:05 PM - Sep 11, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 9/10
Many in the media haven't learned anything since 2016. Discussing Biden vs. Trump polls a year before an election is premature and serves no legitimate purpose. Recent polls can be off the mark even just days before an election, so no one should trust a 2024 poll in September 2023. It's reckless.
12:14 PM - Sep 11, 2023
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Christopher Bouzy
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thread 10/10
On Wednesday, I will release the second part of this 3-part series. Watch this space...
12:15 PM - Sep 11, 2023
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frog_enabler
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I followed Bouzy on Twitter for his astute critique of election polls. I'm so grateful that he started Spoutible & that it came to be. We saw how his idea, work, and this community made it happen. Now, I'm so glad to listen to his expertise again. The media creates narratives, fooling itself.
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
02:21 PM - Sep 11, 2023
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