Ayan Das
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Going to try out the #AutoThreading / #ThreadSummary features with this #thread on the upcoming #elections

The one that will most reflect the current #political climate and potential tone for 2024 is the #VALeg (Virginia Legislature) elections.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin has put a lot into making the
03:52 PM - Oct 15, 2023
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Ayan Das
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State’s legislature red, and this will be his ultimate test. I seriously doubt a win would lead to a #POTUS run giving the timing and Trump’s clout, but it will certainly put Youngkin as a potential contender for 2026 senate and/or 2028 POTUS.

Republicans are benefiting from having relatively good
03:52 PM - Oct 15, 2023
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Ayan Das
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Fundraising plus candidates of somewhat mainstream quality. But one thing that could prove to be their bane / undoing is the #abortion issue. Time and again, reproductive health has proven to be a losing issue for the GOP. Youngkin and his allies have tried to float a 15 week ban as reasonable, but
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Ayan Das
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Bans have not been shown to be popular, period. Democrats also benefit from Biden and the #DNC floating a good amount of money into the races vs the #RNC refusing to put cash in.

The power of #abortion and the GOP brand which focuses on #crime / #education as Youngkin likes to will be at test here
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Ayan Das
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The #Ohio abortion ballot initiative is the 2nd most potent election at play in November. While #Issue1 for raising the citizen ballot threshold to 60% failed dramatically in August, I heard that there has not been that much hype for the actual #abortion initiative. Plus, Frank LaRose’s attempts to
03:52 PM - Oct 15, 2023
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Ayan Das
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Influence the ballot language might muddy things and cause some voters to vote against the initiative despite voting no for the 60% threshold in August.

If the #abortion initiative passes, there is a very good chance LaRose loses the #OHSenate primary next year as he will be seen as someone who
03:52 PM - Oct 15, 2023
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Ayan Das
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failed to fight for the pro-life movement TWICE. I think this would give Bernie Moreno a rise in the race and potentially help Sherrod Brown not just from the #abortion issue perspective but from the opppnent candidate quality angle.

Finally, we need to look at the #MSGov race with Tate Reeves and
03:52 PM - Oct 15, 2023
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Ayan Das
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Brandon Presley. Presley has done some good fundraising and voter outreach plus has a history of winning in conservative areas. It also helps that he is a pro-life fiscal conservative in Ruby-red #Mississippi .

Now Tate Reeves May be unpopular but the polls have been on his side in this election,
03:52 PM - Oct 15, 2023
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Ayan Das
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And partisan lean might just put him over the top. But if Presley beats the odds and wins, it will be an earthquake in #American #politics and a big warning sign for the GOP in 2024.

Well that is my #elections / #politics analysis folks! Hope you liked it, and share your thoughts!
03:52 PM - Oct 15, 2023
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