Gabe Hoffman
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thread 1/13
@cbouzy As you were saying. Also I find the idea that Trump would mean better chances of staying out of war just laughable. The irony is that Biden right now is probably the main thing keeping the situation in Israel from spiraling any further out of control.
10:49 AM - Nov 05, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 2/13
One can almost sense a massive Republican oversampling in these results. How exactly would Trump keep us out of war especially his penchant for pouring gasoline on fires?
10:59 AM - Nov 05, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 3/13
More signs of Republican oversampling. You cannot be serious that Trump would bring a more stable peaceful world. Remember this is the same guy who has threatened to pull us out of NATO if he wins.
11:01 AM - Nov 05, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 4/13
Important to define too much support here.
11:02 AM - Nov 05, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 5/13
The one thing I would do in these sorts of polls is ask people specifically why they think things are getting worse right now.
11:03 AM - Nov 05, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 6/13
This is a common thing you see in a lot of MSM polling in that they always seem to cast Democrats as nervous or fearful while Republican voters are always confident. I think many pundits continue to underestimate how the fear of MAGA has been a big motivator among Dem voters.
11:05 AM - Nov 05, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 7/13
It cant be a coincidence that right as the New York Times comes out with a likely heavily flawed poll suggesting Biden is in trouble CBS comes out with a poll suggesting that Americans would consider themselves better off under a 2nd Trump term.
11:06 AM - Nov 05, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 8/13
We are basically in the Republicans flooding the zone with junk polling stage of the 2024 Race. The difference is unlike 2022 they didn't wait until the last minute
11:14 AM - Nov 05, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 9/13
Another problem with these polls is that they likely don't factor in the potential effect of third-party candidates. This recent poll from SP&R for example shows Biden clearly ahead of Trump with RFK Jr syphoning roughly 6% of Trump's votes.
11:18 AM - Nov 05, 2023 (Edited)
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 10/13
Many pundits also likely have not considered that Trump could be very easily convicted and in jail by November next year and how that could easily alienate him among moderate/swing voters. There is also the possibility of Trump suffering a major health scare given his clear cognitive decline.
11:26 AM - Nov 05, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 11/13
@cbouzy makes a good point that a lot of these polls are designed to try and push the narrative that Biden is a failure and can't win but that clearly hasn't translated into the Democrats performance in Special Elections this year.
11:43 AM - Nov 05, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 12/13
Regardless of how Dems do in Virginia next Tuesday don't be surprised if the media talking heads start twisting themselves in knots to explain how it all means Biden is doomed.
11:44 AM - Nov 05, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 13/13
As people always say the best we can do is put our heads to work and turn more people out to vote Biden. But if I had one bit of suggestion don't just focus on accomplishments. It's important to piledrive it into people's heads how disastrous a 2nd Trump term could be for America and the world.
11:48 AM - Nov 05, 2023
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déjà vu
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In response to Gabe Hoffman.
Trump racked up $7 trillion debt.
03:28 PM - Nov 06, 2023
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Jean Ring
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In response to Gabe Hoffman.
For any of the past elections I would agree that the polling is not reliable because of how younger voters are not really included.With seeing the current protests and how many young voters likely won‘t vote for Biden out of anger I would not count on them tipping the scale in the direction of Biden
06:05 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Amylouise Donnelly
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In response to Jean Ring.
Young people will wait this out a year ahead of the election but when the effect of the Dobbs ruling becomes clearer to them, and the effects of an improving economy begin to hit them I think they'll think twice about staying home.
05:30 AM - Nov 06, 2023
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Gabe Hoffman
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In response to Jean Ring.
I would be careful about assuming all Gen Zers won't vote for Biden over Palestine. I should point out a lot of the online leftists you see screaming at Biden online are most likely clout chasers. Look out for how fast they forget about Palestine the moment the next big crisis comes round.
10:37 AM - Nov 06, 2023 (Edited)
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Koronin
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In response to Gabe Hoffman.
Not only over sampling Rs, but also completely missing the still very real effects of Dobbs. I do think the VA election will be more "real" than the polls.
05:32 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Jean Ring
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In response to Koronin.
In the current climate I would be vary of being overconfident, if Dems win in VA, that this means Biden will win next year. Voters unhappy with the Israel support could vote Dem locally but sit 2024 out or only vote downballot. Right now the anger is palpable and could have lasting effects.
06:07 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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Blair Houghton
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In response to Gabe Hoffman.
It's post hoc ergo propter hoc. Trump didn't start a war, therefore he won't get attacked?

Putin and MBS were in league with him, not scared of him. What they do together will be worse than world war, without firing a shot.
03:11 PM - Nov 05, 2023
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