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PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Jan 15, 2024

🔹1.2-1.5 million daily U.S. infections the next month
🔹41.2 million total infections the next month
🔹66.7 million total infections over the next 2 months

These infection rates are 30% higher than a year ago.

Don't get into #DescentNeglect mode please
06:26 AM - Jan 17, 2024
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Yet, expect considerable minimizing. Many people believe that once the peak day has passed, it's smooth sailing, what I would call "Descent Neglect."

Take an analogy: More people die, supposedly, going down Mt. Everest than going up.
06:27 AM - Jan 17, 2024
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With COVID surges, people also underestimate how bad the 2nd half of surge mountain is likely to be. They overestimate how spiky or leptokurtic a a surge tends to be. Transmission will go down gradually, meaning extremely high transmission the next 4-6 weeks especially.
06:28 AM - Jan 17, 2024
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This may be fueled by a misunderstanding of how quickly transmission declines, defense mechanisms to temporarily and artificially reduce anxiety, short-term political or capital interests, or a combination of these factors.
#DescentNeglect
06:28 AM - Jan 17, 2024
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