1/24
Source information reposted with permission from Moriarty Labs.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Feb 3-16, 2024
SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none
About 1 in 19 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Feb 3-16, 2024
SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none
About 1 in 19 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
09:03 PM - Feb 04, 2024
2/24
WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?
About 1 in 19 people in Canada is currently infected, but the error range for infection estimates is 45% this week, because of rapid change in some but not all indicators.
About 1 in 19 people in Canada is currently infected, but the error range for infection estimates is 45% this week, because of rapid change in some but not all indicators.
10:14 PM - Feb 04, 2024
3/24
COVID Forecast scores are dropping ~10%/week in Canada and many regions, and declines are accelerating. If these trends continue, some regions may finally be leaving the SEVERE range in the coming month.
10:15 PM - Feb 04, 2024
4/24
Message from Moriarty Lab:
We'll be modifying the ranges we use in the coming weeks to provide a better sense of change. Please stay tuned.
We'll be modifying the ranges we use in the coming weeks to provide a better sense of change. Please stay tuned.
10:16 PM - Feb 04, 2024
5/24
5 week waste water and test positivity rates are on average declining 15%/week in Canada.
10:17 PM - Feb 04, 2024
6/24
Estimated reported and expected healthcare system impacts (hospital admissions, daily life activity-limiting long COVID) are declining 10%/week.
Reported and expected deaths are decreasing 5%/week.
Reported and expected deaths are decreasing 5%/week.
10:21 PM - Feb 04, 2024
7/24
In Canada, during the first 10 months of 2023, on average 25 COVID-19 hospital outbreaks/week were reported to PHAC.
This is 9.8 outbreaks/week for Ontario, if the province has reported all of its hospital outbreaks to PHAC.
This is 9.8 outbreaks/week for Ontario, if the province has reported all of its hospital outbreaks to PHAC.
10:22 PM - Feb 04, 2024
8/24
As of February 2nd, at least 16/34 Ontario Public Health Unit regions are experiencing outbreaks in their hospitals. 5 units don’t do any public reporting, or only report PHO numbers which don’t specify the type of setting (LTC, hospital, retirement home, etc.).
10:22 PM - Feb 04, 2024
9/24
There were at least 16 Covid-19 outbreaks in #ONHospitals as of February 2nd. The number is likely higher but can’t be found due to the way some public health units report (or don’t). Notably, outbreaks of RSV, enterovirus and influenza are also heavily in the mix.
10:22 PM - Feb 04, 2024
10/24
Please help build a critical mass and urge those in charge to change course. Join SafeCareON and send your email to institutional, health and political leaders today! It only takes a minute. For the safety of all we need #UniversalMaskingInHealthcare today!
10:23 PM - Feb 04, 2024
11/24
ON #Wastewater is declining in several regions, however the journey down from a huge peak is full of infections and hospital outbreaks. Subscribe at safecare.initiative.works to get notified which regions’ hospitals we’re writing to next. Our voices are louder together!
10:24 PM - Feb 04, 2024
12/24
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 3-16, 2024
CANADA
SEVERE (no change)
About 1 in every 19 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~12X higher
-Long COVID ~7X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~13X higher
CANADA
SEVERE (no change)
About 1 in every 19 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~12X higher
-Long COVID ~7X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~13X higher
10:26 PM - Feb 04, 2024
13/24
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 3-16, 2024
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
SEVERE (no change)
About 1 in every 16 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~10X higher
-Long COVID ~6X higher
-Hospitalizations ~15X higher
-Deaths ~20X higher
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
SEVERE (no change)
About 1 in every 16 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~10X higher
-Long COVID ~6X higher
-Hospitalizations ~15X higher
-Deaths ~20X higher
10:28 PM - Feb 04, 2024
14/24
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 3-16, 2024
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
SEVERE (decreasing)
About 1 in every 17 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~6X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~10X higher
-Deaths ~13X higher
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
SEVERE (decreasing)
About 1 in every 17 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~6X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~10X higher
-Deaths ~13X higher
10:29 PM - Feb 04, 2024
15/24
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 3-16, 2024
NOVA SCOTIA
SEVERE (no change)
About 1 in every 23 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~9X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~13X higher
-Deaths ~13X higher
NOVA SCOTIA
SEVERE (no change)
About 1 in every 23 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~9X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~13X higher
-Deaths ~13X higher
10:30 PM - Feb 04, 2024
16/24
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 3-16, 2024
NEW BRUNSWICK
SEVERE (no change)
About 1 in every 19 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~16X higher
-Long COVID ~8X higher
-Hospitalizations ~15X higher
-Deaths ~16X higher
NEW BRUNSWICK
SEVERE (no change)
About 1 in every 19 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~16X higher
-Long COVID ~8X higher
-Hospitalizations ~15X higher
-Deaths ~16X higher
10:32 PM - Feb 04, 2024
17/24
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 3-16, 2024
QUÉBEC
SEVERE (no change)
About 1 in every 16 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~24X higher
-Long COVID ~11X higher
-Hospitalizations ~14X higher
-Deaths ~14X higher
QUÉBEC
SEVERE (no change)
About 1 in every 16 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~24X higher
-Long COVID ~11X higher
-Hospitalizations ~14X higher
-Deaths ~14X higher
10:33 PM - Feb 04, 2024
18/24
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 3-16, 2024
ONTARIO
SEVERE (decreasing)
About 1 in every 16 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~8X higher
-Long COVID ~6X higher
-Hospitalizations ~11X higher
-Deaths ~13X higher
ONTARIO
SEVERE (decreasing)
About 1 in every 16 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~8X higher
-Long COVID ~6X higher
-Hospitalizations ~11X higher
-Deaths ~13X higher
10:35 PM - Feb 04, 2024
19/24
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 3-16, 2024
MANITOBA
SEVERE (decreasing)
About 1 in every 19 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~7X higher
-Long COVID ~4X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~22X higher
MANITOBA
SEVERE (decreasing)
About 1 in every 19 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~7X higher
-Long COVID ~4X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~22X higher
10:37 PM - Feb 04, 2024
20/24
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 3-16, 2024
SASKATCHEWAN
SEVERE (no change)
About 1 in every 19 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~10X higher
-Long COVID ~6X higher
-Hospitalizations ~15X higher
-Deaths ~18X higher
SASKATCHEWAN
SEVERE (no change)
About 1 in every 19 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~10X higher
-Long COVID ~6X higher
-Hospitalizations ~15X higher
-Deaths ~18X higher
10:39 PM - Feb 04, 2024
21/24
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 3-16, 2024
ALBERTA
SEVERE (decreasing)
About 1 in every 15 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~9X higher
-Long COVID ~6X higher
-Hospitalizations ~10X higher
-Deaths ~12X higher
ALBERTA
SEVERE (decreasing)
About 1 in every 15 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~9X higher
-Long COVID ~6X higher
-Hospitalizations ~10X higher
-Deaths ~12X higher
10:41 PM - Feb 04, 2024
22/24
BRITISH COLUMBIA
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 48,600-57,800
About 1 in every 31 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~8X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~11X higher
SEVERE (no change)
Estimated infections this week: 48,600-57,800
About 1 in every 31 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~8X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~11X higher
10:43 PM - Feb 04, 2024
23/24
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 3-16, 2024
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
SEVERE (decreasing)
About 1 in every 19 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~10X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~10X higher
-Deaths ~10X higher
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
SEVERE (decreasing)
About 1 in every 19 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~10X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~10X higher
-Deaths ~10X higher
10:44 PM - Feb 04, 2024
24/24
Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends.
The next forecast will be February 17, 2024.
The next forecast will be February 17, 2024.
10:45 PM - Feb 04, 2024
