HumTeach
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thread 1/4
"There are problems with the NYT poll - It has Trump winning both Hispanics and women - an impossibility.
08:15 AM - Mar 03, 2024
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HumTeach
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thread 2/4
It’s likely voter electorate is +3 Republican - something we haven’t seen in a general election in actual voting in 20 years, and only once in the last 8 Presidential elections going all the way back to 1992.
08:15 AM - Mar 03, 2024
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HumTeach
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thread 3/4
In the last 4 Presidential elections, Democrats have averaged 51%, Republicans 46%, and we gained ground in the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 elections. After all these years of strong Democratic vote performance for the electorate to become +3 Republican this year is, um, unlikely.
08:15 AM - Mar 03, 2024
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HumTeach
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thread 4/4
Overestimating their intensity and strength and underestimating ours was a central reason so many saw the red wave that never came in 2022."
08:15 AM - Mar 03, 2024
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