Gabe Hoffman
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thread 1/7
Been doing a bit of tea leaf reading on Ukraine aid right now and I think many of the media talking heads underestimate just how precarious a position Speaker Johnson is in right now.
02:18 AM - Apr 17, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 2/7
Mike Johnson's new foreign aid plan reads as an effort to try and placate GOP hardliners by essentially chopping up the Senate supplemental into multiple bills and then voting on them as one package under a single rule vote. That hasn't really quelled the hardliners however.
02:18 AM - Apr 17, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 3/7
Johnson is no doubt desperate to keep his caucus as united as possible but he cannot stick too many right wing demands into the foreign aid lest he risk alienating House Dems which he WILL need if he hopes to have any chance of this passing.
02:18 AM - Apr 17, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 4/7
This leads to one of Mike Johnsons biggest problems in that he cannot really pass anything without Democrat support and it will get worse soon with Mike Gallagher leaving this Friday meaning he will only be able to lose 1 GOP vote.
02:18 AM - Apr 17, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 5/7
It's also starting to become clear the GOP Ukraine hawks are nearing the end of their patience with Johnson since a number of Republicans have signaled, they will join in on the discharge petition if Johnson's plan fails.
02:18 AM - Apr 17, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 6/7
The bottom line is that Johnson doesn't really have any wiggle room and if he doesn't bring Ukraine aid soon. He may as well be finished as speaker.
02:18 AM - Apr 17, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 7/7
Ultimately I see Ukraine aid going the same way as so many other spending bill fights this past year with Mike Johnson ultimately being forced to go running to Democrats in order to help bail himself and Republicans out from the very mess they themselves created.
02:18 AM - Apr 17, 2024
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