Gabe Hoffman
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thread 1/9
Thinking about today's CNN Poll I cannot help but be getting Deja Vu over the 2022 mid terms with so many pundits predicting a Trump win or a close election while ignoring Trump's numerous obvious warning signs of weakness right now.
01:03 PM - Apr 28, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 2/9
For starters even after Nikki Haley has long since dropped out she is still managing to steal a sizeable chunk of voters from Trump in the primaries. Remember that Trump cannot really afford any erosion of support. If a small fraction stay home or vote third party or Biden it would be disastrous.
01:03 PM - Apr 28, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 3/9
Many Republican state parties including those in key battleground states have devolved into complete chaos and dysfunction as well as running into financial problems. This will make it harder to coordinate effectively with the Trump campaign.
01:03 PM - Apr 28, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 4/9
We are practically seeing the opposite of 2020 right now where Biden and Democrats have been investing heavily into turnout operations while the GOP ground game seems diminished or nonexistent. Trump reportedly still has no campaign presence or infrastructure in several key states.
01:03 PM - Apr 28, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 5/9
One big reason the election in 2020 ended up closer than expected was because the pandemic ate into a lot of Democrat turnout operations. That won't be the case this time. Biden and Dems will have a lot more freedom to go all out in ginning up support.
01:03 PM - Apr 28, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 6/9
And of course we can't overlook the big elephant in the room that so many pundits seem to be overlooking which is that we are now living in a post Dobbs world. I think a lot of MSM talking heads still underestimate how so many people are animated by the loss of women's bodily rights.
01:03 PM - Apr 28, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 7/9
Abortion referendums will be on the ballot in many states this November including Florida. Florida is a big one in itself because its long been the epic center of right wing MAGA politics. There is good reason why the Florida GOP tried so hard to stop Amendment 4 from getting on the ballot.
01:03 PM - Apr 28, 2024
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 8/9
On top of this Florida Democrats will reportedly be contesting every possible seat in Florida. This will prove an added headache for Republicans as it will force them to divert resources into defending places they would otherwise not have to worry about.
01:03 PM - Apr 28, 2024 (Edited)
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Gabe Hoffman
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thread 9/9
And of course I think many aren't accounting for the possibility of the SCOTUS granting Trump complete immunity. The fallout over Roe v Wade would likely pale in comparison to the likely backlash that would ensue from giving Trump carte blanche to do whatever he wants with no consequences.
01:03 PM - Apr 28, 2024 (Edited)
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