Libby Snowflake
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thread 1/5
My thoughts on Russian coup. Prigozhin realized he lost the power battle to Shoigu and was about to lose his his head.

He occupied Rostov and took all classified material from Southern Military District HQ and sent them to his contacts in Africa/elsewhere. If he dies, those would be released.
01:55 AM - Jun 26, 2023
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Libby Snowflake
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thread 2/5
Wagner's race to Moscow was a secondary incentive to Putin to take the deal. Prigozhin knew he could take Moscow (nobody wanted to help Putin and Russians just cheered) but he wouldn't survive the aftermath. Classic "If I die, I'll take you with me".
01:55 AM - Jun 26, 2023
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Libby Snowflake
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thread 3/5
The actual deal Prigozhin made was to keep his head and some of his power. I doubt he'll do much in Belarus.

Part of the deal is likely that he stays quiet. Lukashenko won't like ambitious guy like Prigozhin having his army in Belarus so I don't believe there'll be surprise attacks to Kyiv.
01:57 AM - Jun 26, 2023
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Libby Snowflake
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thread 4/5
Prigozhin hates Shoigu but as long as Prigozhin survives it's likely his actual deal didn't involve getting rid of him.

Even if he wanted, it's difficult for Putin even get rid of Shoigu now that because it would give the impression that Prigozhin challenged him and won.
01:58 AM - Jun 26, 2023
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Libby Snowflake
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thread 5/5
As for Prigozhin, he'll return to Russia eventually. I'm thinking that when Putin is ousted out of the window and discredited for his failures, Prigozhin plans to return as the guy who tried to set things straight despite Putin.

Maybe he even has ambitions of presidency in Russia eventually.
02:03 AM - Jun 26, 2023
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