Charlie 21
A
thread 1/18
I disagree with the outcome of this poll

See thread for why

"Does the West Want #Ukraine to Win or Just Restrain #russia ?"

https://bit.ly/3OI3GG8
10:33 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
A
thread 2/18
Nation-state priorities:
a) Stay in power (this is the #1 priority of those currently in power of the nation-state)
b) National strategic priorities (only if not outweighed by domestic priorities)
c) National domestic priorities
d) Regional priorities (meaning local neighborhood of nation-states)
10:35 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 3/18
e) Alliance priorities
f) Global priorities (note that "save the only planet we've got" is in sixth place)
g) Solar system and Galaxy priorities (we haven't gotten there yet, but when we do, I guarantee some politician will be saying, "...blue ribbon commission to ensure this never happens again"
10:38 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 4/18
Based on these priorities, #Ukraine winning is down around (e) and (f), not even in the top three

However, degrading #russia military power, influence, and corresponding national brand reputation aligns with both (a) and (b)
10:40 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 5/18
Creating a crippled #russia that is no longer capable of credibly threatening the #US , the #EU , or #Nato via ground war is a huge win for all the top priorities, all the way down to alliance.

Albeit not a factor for US regional, it is a huge win for EU national and regional
10:42 AM - Aug 04, 2023 (Edited)
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Charlie 21
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thread 6/18
Note that Russia has not been and will not be a credible threat with their non-nuclear air or navy

Prior to being revealed as a paper tiger, #russia was perceived as a credible and massive threat for ground warfare

This has been true since the days of the Fulda Gap
10:45 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 7/18
So, take every Western decision related to arming and supporting #Ukraine made since February 2022 and run it through the priority list for each nation involved, e.g. US, Germany, UK, etc.
10:47 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 8/18
When the priority is not "Ukraine win ASAP" and instead, "the nation-state priority list," what happened with both the timing and the choices makes a lot more sense and is a lot less cryptic and frustrating
10:49 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 9/18
Using the nation-state priority list, it is actually *NOT* in the best interests of west to have Ukraine win quickly

Especially if Ukraine wins or the war is stopped before Russia's military can be degraded to the maximum extent possible
10:54 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 10/18
The west's goal is to achieve maximum degradation of Russia's military, especially in ground warfare that threatens the EU, *and* the west being perceived as the savior of Ukraine and world democracy
10:58 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 11/18
It's up to each of the western nations to spin all of that in a way that plays well for their domestic audiences and, if they play their cards right, keeps them in power
10:59 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 12/18
This is why the west keeps using the phrase "as long as it takes"

The "it" in that phrase is: maximum destruction of Russian military power
11:01 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 13/18
Any benefits that accrue to Ukraine as part of all this are secondary to the primary goal: degrade the Russian military
11:02 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 14/18
Obviously, if you want Ukraine to win now, this is frustrating

But it is the way it works for nation-states

And alliances

The nation-state always comes first
Then the neighborhood
Then the alliances
Then, maybe, "the right thing to do;" but only if it advances the prior agendas
11:07 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
A
thread 15/18
The next time you are throwing something at the screen due to frustration with decisions or lack thereof of the west for Ukraine, try running it through the nation-state priorities

You may not like it, but it may relieve some stress

Or at least help you understand in which specific way things work
11:09 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 16/18
Just to be clear:
* I want Russia completely and utterly defeated as quickly as possible as much as anybody on the planet

* I am just as frustrated at the pace of western decision making as anybody else

* I want Ukraine to win and to have a glorious future in the EU and NATO
11:10 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
A
thread 17/18
* I want every last surviving Russian war criminal to spend the rest of their miserable lives in the worst jail cell available

"surviving" is the operative word there
11:14 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Charlie 21
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thread 18/18
* I want to ensure that Russia can never again threaten, bully, intimidate, or invade any of its neighbors or any other nation
11:21 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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Julia W.
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In response to Charlie 21.
Wow....this is prob the first time I've heard this and it really helps to answers some of the most nagging questions I've had since the beginning of the fullscale invasion. So...thank you!!
06:48 PM - Aug 25, 2023
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Charlie 21
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In response to Julia W..
You are very welcome
09:40 AM - Aug 27, 2023
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Sonia Santana
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In response to Charlie 21.
Very good thread. It's heartbreaking to see Ukraine being used like this. The ultimate goal of seeing ruzzia crippled to the point of not being a threat to the west. I'm with you. I want an clear and decisive win for Ukraine as soon as possible. And for all ruzzian criminals to be ended for ever.
11:27 AM - Aug 04, 2023
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