Christopher Bouzy
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My election forecast models do not rely on polls and are often within a point or two of the actual results. However, Democrats are currently surpassing the upper bounds of my most optimistic models. This suggests an unexpected trend is unfolding that even my models are missing.
11:30 AM - Feb 14, 2024
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ALIS ITLATOL
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I was curious abt the NY-03
2022 Santos was elected with 149K votes
(Dem approx 90K)
2024 special election approx
Souzzi 91K
Pilip 78K

is this just lower turnout, undecided, GOP is imploding or ?
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
12:09 PM - Feb 14, 2024
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Kyle Hagedorn
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In response to ALIS ITLATOL.
Special elections almost always have lower turnout than midterms (which are lower than presidential years).
So, a Dem candidate getting mid-term # of votes in a special election suggests at worst a massive enthusiasm gap. And at best a major swing in overall partisan bias amongst the electorate.
12:56 PM - Feb 14, 2024
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