My election forecast models do not rely on polls and are often within a point or two of the actual results. However, Democrats are currently surpassing the upper bounds of my most optimistic models. This suggests an unexpected trend is unfolding that even my models are missing.
11:30 AM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I've known Republicans that vote straight ticket and probably why they chose tRump in 2016. A lot have broken away bc he's just so unhinged and weird. I don't believe a majority of either Dems, GOP and especially Independents want him anywhere near power again.
02:57 AM - Mar 02, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Yesterday I was talking to my dental hygienist. She is in her sixties. She is aware Democracy is at stake in this election and said she could never vote for Trump who has 91 felony indictments. I really think the primary motive for most voters is to reject fascism .
05:47 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Stephen Cullum.
I have not forgotten the absolute terror I felt between Jan 7 and Jan 20, 2021. The thought of that man having the ability to launch a nuclear strike again. At my worst (anxiety) I thought Atlanta might even be a target.
07:13 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Yes!! I saw you said by 3, and NY won by 8! But Santos was such a nightmare, they may have been embarrassed into such a showing! But it's also in VA and PA and, and... let's go USA!!! Hope that blue wave comes through to save our democracy & maybe even the planet if we can begin to keep nice things!
02:53 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I believe some of what's happening is the GOP is no longer able to cheat. They don't have the backing, the money, or the people installed to pull it off. The ones they do have in Congress are dumb as rocks.
02:37 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to BulaRae.
The money is possibly the biggest piece of that. Their finances have collapsed thanks to Mango Mussolini's pilfering and donors refuse to give to the RNC with the knowledge they'll wind up paying him.
03:09 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to BulaRae.
without compromise there is no governance. the extreme right has slowly infiltrated the whole party and people can’t stand to have lazy representatives
10:18 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I think the trend is Trump unbound and unhinged. His latest rants and declarations + the MAGA GQP cronies in Congress doing his bidding = votes for the Dems. 🤎 to see it! 😃
02:17 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
That you're models @cbouzy are underestimating the D's strength is actually a very good thing.
02:03 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Buffalo Springfield - For What It's Worth 1967 - YouTube
There's something happening hereWhat it is ain't exactly clearThere's a man with a gun over thereTelling me I got to bewareI think it's time we stop, childre...
01:21 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
What's happening "on the ground" is more more voters see the GOP as ineffective.
01:00 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Enjoy this while keeping in mind a lot can happen in the coming nine months.
12:55 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
When giving us your thoughts on a given "win by," would you also consider giving us your optimistic and pessimistic results? Or keep that data somewhere to appease the desperately curious?
12:54 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Agree, thought it was telling when reading about last nights NY race for Santos replacement that people remarked that they voted against Republicans because Republicans voted against the bi-partisan border bill on Trump’s orders. That will likely translate to how suburban swing voters will vote.
12:27 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I think it's pretty obvious. America is smart enough to see with their own eyes that Republicans are a hot mess and they're tired. They just want boring politics they can ignore back.
That means even people who usually vote red are done.
That means even people who usually vote red are done.
12:09 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I was curious abt the NY-03
2022 Santos was elected with 149K votes
(Dem approx 90K)
2024 special election approx
Souzzi 91K
Pilip 78K
is this just lower turnout, undecided, GOP is imploding or ?
2022 Santos was elected with 149K votes
(Dem approx 90K)
2024 special election approx
Souzzi 91K
Pilip 78K
is this just lower turnout, undecided, GOP is imploding or ?
12:09 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to ALIS ITLATOL.
Special elections almost always have lower turnout than midterms (which are lower than presidential years).
So, a Dem candidate getting mid-term # of votes in a special election suggests at worst a massive enthusiasm gap. And at best a major swing in overall partisan bias amongst the electorate.
So, a Dem candidate getting mid-term # of votes in a special election suggests at worst a massive enthusiasm gap. And at best a major swing in overall partisan bias amongst the electorate.
12:56 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I would rather you be conservative in your estimates. Great job as always however at getting it right!!
11:56 AM - Feb 14, 2024
Only followers of this user (Loulourich) can see their posts
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I love that despite the MSM's disingenuous efforts, clickbait headlines and Biden bashing, people are voting for dems.
11:53 AM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
It's the Silent Voter. Republicans and Democrats who normally wouldn't vote or would vote Republican.
I know because I've been talking about them. The Powerful Republicans don't want TRUMP.
I know because I've been talking about them. The Powerful Republicans don't want TRUMP.
11:46 AM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Talk nerdy to us 🤓 and give us hope for November!! 💚
11:43 AM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Trump is effective at getting low propensity voters out who don’t usually vote in special elections. Is this something to be concerned about in November?
11:38 AM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Jay D.
No...because those low propensity voters tend to be on our side these days. MAGA is too convinced we're rigging elections.
11:42 AM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I guess we need to figure out how much of the "overperformance" was based on the snowstorm on election day. 🧐
11:38 AM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Thomas Liljeruhm.
The on-site reporters on MSNBC last night said that the local PW official (streets, etc.) is a Republican, and had the plows out (which was his job, so good on him). There was some private plowing done as well. Doesn't help when one has to walk a couple of snowy blocks, but it was no standstill.
05:10 PM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Great news! I hope it works that way in Canada, too. The idea of PP getting in is revolting at best.
11:37 AM - Feb 14, 2024
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Cool!
Ok, Buffalo Springfield is now my current ear worm. 😁
Ok, Buffalo Springfield is now my current ear worm. 😁
11:36 AM - Feb 14, 2024
