Christopher Bouzy
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My election forecast models do not rely on polls and are often within a point or two of the actual results. However, Democrats are currently surpassing the upper bounds of my most optimistic models. This suggests an unexpected trend is unfolding that even my models are missing.
11:30 AM - Feb 14, 2024
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Thomas Liljeruhm
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I guess we need to figure out how much of the "overperformance" was based on the snowstorm on election day. 🧐
11:38 AM - Feb 14, 2024
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Clayton Haapala
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The on-site reporters on MSNBC last night said that the local PW official (streets, etc.) is a Republican, and had the plows out (which was his job, so good on him). There was some private plowing done as well. Doesn't help when one has to walk a couple of snowy blocks, but it was no standstill.
In response to Thomas Liljeruhm.
05:10 PM - Feb 14, 2024
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