Dawn Bezio
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@tomiahonen what is your prediction on the Biden/Trump election. I know you said Biden will win but how close will it be?
06:27 AM - Mar 07, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Dawn Bezio.
So for a number for both President Biden re-election and Defendant Trump defeat, I will not be able to calculate that number for you until after the conventions but in August you will get my number. I will then update that regularly until weekend before election for my final forecast.
08:39 AM - Mar 07, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Dawn Bezio.
Every Presidential election cycle I have done total massive prediction system for every element of the race, and I will do so for this year too. And I am by far most accurate in those predictions. I am unable to do it without valid data. So I will start from August onwards this cycle
08:38 AM - Mar 07, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Dawn Bezio.
Today I can give rough estimate for you. So Trump will do worse than Mondale in 1984, Trump will not reach 40%, his final national election count is somewhere in the 30s. Biden will do something around 55% or better & third party vote will take some percentage points but will not decide the election
08:36 AM - Mar 07, 2024
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Dawn Bezio
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In response to Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum.
That sounds good but what about the electoral college delegates? Will Biden win the swing states MI, AZ, PA, NV, GA, WI? Or will it be really close?
08:40 AM - Mar 07, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Dawn Bezio.
because NOBODY has accurate data now, it is impossible to make as facts-based forecast for Nov 2024. It is clear that Trump will suffer WORSE than 2020, because Trump has become WORSE since his Nov 2020 loss. Even his OWN SIDE was angered by Jan 6, and by Espionage-A-Lago and by rape verdict and...
08:35 AM - Mar 07, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Dawn Bezio.
The FIRST time in ANY year for incumbent re-election race, the polls will start to reflect REALITY happens AFTER the two conventions. So in AUGUST of this year, we should look at polling. NOT ONCE BEFORE THAT. today they are AS WRONG as polls that said Obama will lose to Romney or Reagan to Mondale
08:34 AM - Mar 07, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Dawn Bezio.
So by short history, EVERY incumbent running for re-election (like Biden now) except Trump 2020, was NOT CAMPAIGNING first 3.5 years and their FAVORABILITY fell to below 50%, that is NORMAL. It happend to Obama, to Bill Clinton, to Reagan, Nixon etc. It happens EVERY TIME, until incumbent campaigns
08:32 AM - Mar 07, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Dawn Bezio.
So for context. The 'polling' is faulty not by pollster evil nature, but by what they CAN measure. It is like trying to measure OUTSIDE temperature but your thermometer is attached to the wall of the INSIDE of your house. It will not measure ACCURATELY what you try to do

Short history...
08:31 AM - Mar 07, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Dawn Bezio.
Dawn, the reason nobody can currently make a fair estimate of Nov 2024 result, is because the race has not begun. ONE SIDE is campaigning (Trump) while other side is the INCUMBENT (has huge advantage) but like most incumbents of past (except silly Trump in 2020) President Biden is GOVERNING now
08:29 AM - Mar 07, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Dawn Bezio.
So it will not be ANYTHING near 'close'. It will be second worst blow-out in US history. It CAN even be biggest blowout. We do not have nearly enough data yet to determine that. I know Trump will be below 40% but am unable to estimate how much below 40%. He might get 5 states in Electoral College
08:27 AM - Mar 07, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Dawn Bezio.
Trump will suffer worst defeat in history of modern voting in USA Presidential elections. He gets below 40% (Mondale loss to Reagan in 1984). But you asked 'how close' and this will likely not be biggest vote MARGIN for Joe Biden who likely won't make it to 60% because of third party but over 55%
08:26 AM - Mar 07, 2024
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