1/24
Literally, the first national media coverage I've seen that even attempts to properly characterize and provide the critical context necessary to understand the current state of San Francisco.
Most reporting on the subject has been highly irresponsible. This isn't. Here's why.
1/
Most reporting on the subject has been highly irresponsible. This isn't. Here's why.
1/
cnn.com
What's really going on with crime in San Francisco? | CNN Politics
Another big American retailer announced it was pulling out of downtown San Francisco. What's happening in that city has become a key storyline in a larger national narrative about crime and perceptions of crime. Here's what one local journalist has to say about that narrative.
11:55 AM - May 05, 2023
2/24
It was smart for them to tackle the subject as a conversation between two parts of the country with radically different concepts of what even constitutes "the City."
Perceptions differ widely between East Coast, where most national media coverage originates, and West Coast.
2/
Perceptions differ widely between East Coast, where most national media coverage originates, and West Coast.
2/
11:55 AM - May 05, 2023
3/24
I grew up in a number of East Coast cities and moved to SF from Manhattan 20+ years ago.
In late-90s/early-00s SF, much like with LA, practically no one lived "downtown." It was almost exclusively commercial and emptied out at night, with the exception of hotels.
3/
In late-90s/early-00s SF, much like with LA, practically no one lived "downtown." It was almost exclusively commercial and emptied out at night, with the exception of hotels.
3/
11:55 AM - May 05, 2023
4/24
Like nearly everyone moving here, I relocated to one of the surrounding neighborhoods perched among the city's 48 named hills or nestled in the valleys in between.
And when my first NYC friend came to visit, his immediate reaction was, "You don't live in San Francisco!"
4/
And when my first NYC friend came to visit, his immediate reaction was, "You don't live in San Francisco!"
4/
11:57 AM - May 05, 2023
5/24
I was in Potrero Hill (view from which is shown). Ironically, it was one of the closest residential neighborhoods to downtown at the time.
If I'd moved to the Hollywood Hills instead and overlooked DTLA, his perception would've been even more so that I lived far out in the suburbs.
5/
If I'd moved to the Hollywood Hills instead and overlooked DTLA, his perception would've been even more so that I lived far out in the suburbs.
5/
11:58 AM - May 05, 2023
6/24
In the intervening 20 years, more residential units have been built downtown, enough to warrant the re-branding of a portion of it for marketing purposes.
However, it's still a small fraction of downtown real estate, which remains overwhelmingly office space.
6/
However, it's still a small fraction of downtown real estate, which remains overwhelmingly office space.
6/
11:58 AM - May 05, 2023
7/24
The post-pandemic shift to remote work, particularly prevalent in tech, has naturally impacted downtown San Francisco, esp. with its over-reliance on commercial real estate, more severely than other cities.
This is almost never part of the national dialogue.
Source: NBER
7/
This is almost never part of the national dialogue.
Source: NBER
7/
12:00 PM - May 05, 2023
8/24
The resultant vacuum of foot traffic downtown exacerbated already existing problems that were prevalent for many decades.
Closures of stores like Whole Foods and Nordstrom are the result of a variety of factors.
Blaming it all on "crime" is intellectually dishonest at best.
8/
Closures of stores like Whole Foods and Nordstrom are the result of a variety of factors.
Blaming it all on "crime" is intellectually dishonest at best.
8/
12:01 PM - May 05, 2023
9/24
In Nordstrom's case, that closure is part of a long-term downward trend in department stores and malls nationwide, particularly inside cities.
It's a shift that's so severe that this mall's developer (Westfield) has decided to leave the U.S. market altogether.
9/
It's a shift that's so severe that this mall's developer (Westfield) has decided to leave the U.S. market altogether.
9/
12:01 PM - May 05, 2023
10/24
Nordstrom leveraging the "crime" argument is particularly unconvincing because their SF store doesn't even have direct street access.
It starts on the second level of the mall and the escalators to reach it aren't even interconnecting.
Not a huge draw for retail thieves.
10/
It starts on the second level of the mall and the escalators to reach it aren't even interconnecting.
Not a huge draw for retail thieves.
10/
12:02 PM - May 05, 2023
11/24
Retail theft and property crime in San Francisco, while having risen since the pandemic's start, is still *below* levels seen over most of the prior decade.
Even if the city's retail theft dropped to zero, that Nordstrom was not long for this world anyway.
Source: SF Police UCR Monthly Report
11/
Even if the city's retail theft dropped to zero, that Nordstrom was not long for this world anyway.
Source: SF Police UCR Monthly Report
11/
12:03 PM - May 05, 2023
12/24
Regarding violent crime, San Francisco has long been and remains among the lowest-affected major metros in the U.S.
In cities >200k, SF places 66th -- just below Corpus Christi, TX, and two spots above Colorado Springs, CO.
12/
In cities >200k, SF places 66th -- just below Corpus Christi, TX, and two spots above Colorado Springs, CO.
12/
12:05 PM - May 05, 2023
13/24
Also, much-hyped car break-ins have recently declined to near-record lows from the four years pre-pandemic, based on SF Police data.
There was a spike in 2022 coinciding with... surprise... the period AFTER the media circus publicized SF as ripe for breaking into cars.
13/
There was a spike in 2022 coinciding with... surprise... the period AFTER the media circus publicized SF as ripe for breaking into cars.
13/
12:05 PM - May 05, 2023
14/24
Unfortunately, much of the perception of SF being crime-ridden is driven by the city's visible homelessness crisis, particularly downtown in proximity to tourists.
And, both sadly and mistakenly, many equate that with crime. Despite the data.
14/
And, both sadly and mistakenly, many equate that with crime. Despite the data.
14/
12:07 PM - May 05, 2023
15/24
According to HUD, homelessness in SF was down 3.5% last year compared to the year prior to the pandemic. And sheltering has improved 22%.
The 20-year upward trend, however, is unacceptable and nothing short of a humanitarian failure.
But it does *not* equate to crime.
15/
The 20-year upward trend, however, is unacceptable and nothing short of a humanitarian failure.
But it does *not* equate to crime.
15/
12:07 PM - May 05, 2023
16/24
Among both property and violent crime, those experiencing homelessness are not the substantive cause.
And they're certainly not driving around smashing in peoples' car windows to grab their luggage and speed off. When caught, those folks are almost never even SF residents.
16/
And they're certainly not driving around smashing in peoples' car windows to grab their luggage and speed off. When caught, those folks are almost never even SF residents.
16/
12:08 PM - May 05, 2023
17/24
Unfortunately, growth in homelessness is a societal trend among many urban centers nationally, with several showing more tragic statistics than SF.
Los Angeles, San Jose and Seattle all have higher per capita homelessness rates. SF is about on par with Denver at 9.5/1,000.
17/
Los Angeles, San Jose and Seattle all have higher per capita homelessness rates. SF is about on par with Denver at 9.5/1,000.
17/
12:09 PM - May 05, 2023
18/24
While homelessness is most commonly blamed on substance abuse and mental health, a US Conference of Mayors study found housing affordability to be an even more serious factor in predicting the likelihood of its prevalence.
18/
U.S. News & World Report article:
https://bit.ly/42rweaX
18/
U.S. News & World Report article:
https://bit.ly/42rweaX
12:15 PM - May 05, 2023
19/24
Of note, the city of Austin, TX, with its population influx post-pandemic, along with rapidly rising housing costs, saw a 26% increase in homelessness during the same period.
But SF remains the nation's second least affordable city, and that certainly doesn't help matters.
19/
But SF remains the nation's second least affordable city, and that certainly doesn't help matters.
19/
12:20 PM - May 05, 2023
20/24
As long as society sits on its hands with regard to homelessness and all of its causes, the problem gets worse while people continue to conflate it with “crime” erroneously.
Because it's easy. It doesn't require facts. It just requires leaning into uninformed perception.
20/
Because it's easy. It doesn't require facts. It just requires leaning into uninformed perception.
20/
12:21 PM - May 05, 2023
21/24
The painful truth is that even if homelessness were solved and unrelated property crime eradicated, it would not "fix" downtown San Francisco.
These are serious issues needing better solutions. Clearly. But they're not THE problem, and they're certainly not specific to SF.
21/
These are serious issues needing better solutions. Clearly. But they're not THE problem, and they're certainly not specific to SF.
21/
12:21 PM - May 05, 2023
22/24
The part of town that most outside SF think of as "the City" is in need of radical reimagining toward mixed-use to address its ills.
Thankfully, it appears more people begin beating that same drum every day.
22/
Thankfully, it appears more people begin beating that same drum every day.
22/
12:22 PM - May 05, 2023
23/24
In an age where hyperbole is king, clickbait is standard, and perception is everything, we've come to expect mischaracterization in national reporting.
So, it's nice there are still people out there looking to educate the public on big picture and break down distortion.
23/
So, it's nice there are still people out there looking to educate the public on big picture and break down distortion.
23/
12:23 PM - May 05, 2023
24/24
Meanwhile, I'll head to my local neighborhood hellhole near SF's geographic center and plan to commit better to being part of a solution...
Instead of whining about the downstream visible effects of our collective failure to address the causes specific to "the City."
/end
Instead of whining about the downstream visible effects of our collective failure to address the causes specific to "the City."
/end
12:24 PM - May 05, 2023
