Christopher Bouzy
A
Republicans should be terrified because Tom Suozzi exceeded my model by a lot.
Christopher Bouzy @cbouzy
Once again, pundits would have you believe the race between Mazi Pilip and Tom Suozzi is a toss up; it's not. Tom Suozzi will win by 3+ points.
06:11 AM - Feb 13, 2024
10:17 PM - Feb 13, 2024
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Matthew Clayton
A
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Didn’t Dems greatly overperform a state legislature race in Oklahoma by 20 points too? The Republican only won by 5 points in a ruby red state.
10:36 PM - Feb 13, 2024
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Edward Cherlin
C
No, Dems are not OVERperforming.

We are PERFORMING, on the issues, in fundraising, on social media, in our ground game...while the pollsters, the pundits, and above all our sworn enemies consistently UNDERperform.
In response to Matthew Clayton.
08:46 PM - Feb 19, 2024
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Matthew Clayton
A
In response to Edward Cherlin.
That’s not it. The majority of the 2022 midterms (save NC) and 2023 have seen candidates and issues Dems win by over 10-15 pts on average. That is unheard of.

I would love this year to be 2010 in reverse for Republicans, where they lose a lot more seats than they expected.
07:39 PM - Feb 20, 2024
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