Christopher Bouzy
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Nate Silver continues to cite polls while ignoring what is happening on the ground. Nate wants you to believe Democratic voters who are donating and voting en masse in special elections will somehow sit out 2024 or just vote for every Democrat on the ballot except for Biden.
08:02 PM - Mar 04, 2024
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Isa-Lee Wolf
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I don't trust him at all, he always seems to find a scenario that covers odd election results.
03:19 PM - Mar 05, 2024
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Ground Control
A
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Bill Palmer had a fairly epic breakdown of why Silver went from respectable to bughouse in his predictions:
10:38 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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dmark
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Nate Silver was right.
Once.
09:53 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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Lucy
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In response to dmark.
So, worse than a broken clock.
05:14 PM - Mar 05, 2024
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Used ToBeGop
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
IMHO, and reflecting results from the last few elections, polls are designed to get the answer they want. I've done one. It made me furious they were manipulating the outcome. Just BS, so I trust none of them.

MSM just wants the "Ratings/Horse Race" & this gives it to them.
08:47 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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Stephen Cullum
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
After the manure show of Trump during his term in office and the vast improvement Biden has brought plus the shifting demographics I find it hard to believe the polling . If I was Nate I would be looking at his sampling methods. Got a feeling there is something wrong with them.
08:27 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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JKfromNY
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
As others here have said, calls are made to landlines - there are fewer landlines than ever before (perhaps more in rural areas), and many people won't answer a cell if they don't recognize a number.
07:21 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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Peggy Stuart #FirstWave
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Who answers these polls? Does anyone answer the phone every time it rings with a call from a number they don’t recognize? I sure don’t.
02:07 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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Lukas Mueller
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
he failed at predicting 2016.
he failed at Senate 2020 (51 Rep).
he failed at House 2020 (avg. 239 Dem, was 222)
he failed at Senate 2022 (51 Rep).

Predicting just on polls won't result in a reliable outcome. He's the best example.
01:55 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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Caryl D
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In response to Lukas Mueller.
I hope he tanks tomorrow
02:01 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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Ground Control
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In response to Lukas Mueller.
As Bill Palmer pointed out, his incorporation of junk polls is what's REALLY hurting his reliability, not to mention he got slimed for getting things one time too often.
10:40 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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David Kaplan
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
What a lot of people who follow 538 don't realize is Nate is just a statistician who came up with an entertaining way of looking at elections by using polling data to project probabilities of election outcomes. It was fresh and interesting 10 years ago but he's never actually predicted anything.
12:12 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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David Kaplan
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In response to David Kaplan.
So what's happened in recent years with the skewing of polling data is his modeling has become pretty useless to project anything. And because he's not a political scientist often his missives about what is happening in the field are not carefully thought out.
12:16 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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Deb Prothero
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
A new measurement tool is required.

Polls are manipulated either by the question or the selected participants. Polls now serve to convey a specific pre-determined message. Pre-determined by whoever pays.

They were useful until monied interests saw they're a cheap tool to manipulate the masses.
10:50 PM - Mar 04, 2024
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déjà vu
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Mark Twain famously popularized the saying, “There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
10:10 PM - Mar 04, 2024
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Stephen Cullum
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In response to déjà vu.
I used statistics in my job . Retired now. There was great effort to get a valid sample. And realization of the slight probabilities could happen. I used that science to calibrate lab equipment and predict where complicate processes were headed.
08:33 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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Magical Mystery Tour (MrG / NAFO)
A
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
I was seeing nonsense about Kari Lake leading in Arizona. "While she's floundering hysterically? And the state GOP organization is in chaos? I don't think so."
09:18 PM - Mar 04, 2024
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Owl Pacino
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
The polls "badly underrated Trump" in 2020, when he lost by... [checks reality]... more than 7 million votes...?
09:00 PM - Mar 04, 2024
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Jeff Mistina 🐻
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
Odd. I thought this guy used to have a good reputation/track record. Perhaps I’m thinking about someone else
08:49 PM - Mar 04, 2024
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Ground Control
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In response to Jeff Mistina 🐻.
Same guy, different circumstances...he's now fighting tooth and nail to stay in the game by making an ass of himself.
10:42 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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Professor Kyle
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
And that the strong Haley vote will entirely move back to TFG...and that the great economy won't matter...and the trials and degradation of TFG won't matter...
08:34 PM - Mar 04, 2024
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⚾️Dane Pereslete⚾️
A
In response to Christopher Bouzy.
How does Nate Silver still have a job? If my record of performance was like his at review time, you'd best believe my employer would put me on the chopping block.
08:30 PM - Mar 04, 2024
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BTwas1
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In response to ⚾️Dane Pereslete⚾️.
Nate has the prediction skills of a bad weatherman. There must be a local TV station with such an open position.
08:33 PM - Mar 04, 2024
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Ground Control
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In response to ⚾️Dane Pereslete⚾️.
He's farming bad hot takes now because he has nowhere else to go if he wants to stay in this game. As Bill Palmer notes, it just happens to be a game where you get rewarded for his kind of failure.
10:43 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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Amy Magnus
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In response to Christopher Bouzy.
What impact do you see the Gaza conflict having on Democratic coalitions?

Young people seem particularly incensed.
08:09 PM - Mar 04, 2024
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Eljay Sixty
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In response to Amy Magnus.
IMO, Gaza will be old news or resolved when the bulk of young voters think about voting. Politically plugged in GenZ are pissed, but many are more interested in whether Dragon’s Dogma will live up to the hype.
05:20 AM - Mar 05, 2024
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