Ocean Moon
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I can't comprehend how Biden is only polling better than Trump in one swing state. I know, I know, polls might not be accurate, but it shouldn't be close! I think I'm going to stay with a friend in Canada during the election.
10:00 PM - Apr 26, 2024
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Chiara Bella
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In response to Ocean Moon.
I would highly recommend checking out Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles substack. He usually analyzes data & refers to Polls showing Biden ahead. It’s been keeping me grounded during this cycle.
07:13 PM - Apr 27, 2024
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BetterDays
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In response to Chiara Bella.
I've been away from mainstream media 4 awhile & it's amazing 2 not live in the fear mongering they all do. I pick & choose who I share my time & algorithm with & he's 1 of them 💙
07:21 PM - Apr 27, 2024
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Ocean Moon
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In response to Chiara Bella.
Thank you for this. I know nothing about Substack, though.
11:11 PM - Apr 27, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Ocean Moon.
So final point, take it from me, I am literally the best forecaster in the world. When the first polls are published after the 2 conventions this summer 2024, so around mid to late August - Biden will be ahead of Trump by MORE than the 5% he was when he beated Trump in 2020. How much more? Can't say
07:55 AM - Apr 27, 2024
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Ocean Moon
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In response to Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum.
Your expertise takes me off the ledge, but aren't we depending on a few thousand swing voters? I'm hoping voters aren't as apathetic as the press makes them out to be. Lawyers are in shock over SC arguments this week. I wasn't. Why is the SC and Barr betting on a Trump win?
12:24 PM - Apr 27, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Ocean Moon.
So compared to election of 2020, President Joe Biden who won, has been fulfilling his promises

After Nov 2020, Defendant Trump who was already disliked, has been making matters FAR WORSE for himself, alienating HIS OWN VOTERS with Jan 6, Espionage-A-Lago, E Jean Carroll, Trump Org trial, Stormy..
07:54 AM - Apr 27, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Ocean Moon.
But the 2020 loser, Trump lost by 2% to Hillary Clinton in 2016. The nation hated him so much, he lost by 5% to Joe Biden. The nation was already tired of Trump. AFTER November 2020, Trump launched a coup d'etat against America (Jan 6) and STOLE classified docs, and lost sexual harassment suits...
07:52 AM - Apr 27, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Ocean Moon.
And for 'sanity'. The 2020 election was not close. Joe Biiden blew Trump out winning 7 million more votes. Since 2020 President Biden has fulfilled a STAGGERING amount of his campaign promises, several which seemed pie-in-the-sky impossible like gun reform and bipartisanship. His voters will return
07:51 AM - Apr 27, 2024
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Erasmus Rotterdam
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In response to Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum.
How much do the famous protesters figure to affect Biden?
10:23 PM - Apr 27, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Ocean Moon.
So take it from a professional pollster and statistician and forecaster - all pollsters know this - the FIRST poll which can somewhat accurately measure the real race between incumbent President Biden & the Defendant Trump, is the polling after the Conventions, in August. Ignore ALL polls until then
07:49 AM - Apr 27, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Ocean Moon.
So in EVERY cycle from Nixon to today, the INCUMBENT was 'in trouble' or under water before the general election began (so that season starts after the Conventions). Obama was under, Bill Clinton was under, Ronald Reagan for goodness sakes, he won by 60% was 'losing' to Mondale in polls year before
07:48 AM - Apr 27, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Ocean Moon.
And here is the true insight that EVERY professional pollster knows, but current TV pundits conveniently forget. CURRENT polling CANNOT accurately measure the GENERAL electoin outcome of November, because the CHALLENGER is campaigning while INCUMBENT is governing. This is EVERY CYCLE from Nixon
07:46 AM - Apr 27, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Ocean Moon.
All (legitimate) polling (so excluding Trump paid polls) have been accurate in ALL elections, the 2016 Hillary election, they predicted (last wkend before election Tuesday, average of polls) a 2% popular vote win for Hillary. That is exactly what happened (polls do not measure electoral college)
07:45 AM - Apr 27, 2024
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Tomi T Ahonen Is A Paranormal Possum
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In response to Ocean Moon.
SRSLY. Polls ARE accurate but they are NOT measuring what is claimed. It is like using a thermometer to measure the temperature. But you place the thermometer in your living room, to try to guess what is temperature outside (could be freezing or a heat wave, home air con has comfy temp)
07:44 AM - Apr 27, 2024
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Salma Typhii
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In response to Ocean Moon.
Try following the prediction markets Balletopedia uses 2 and I like tge not US based one because it is a University led project
https://www.predictit.org/
10:03 PM - Apr 26, 2024
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