CovidUpdates

CovidUpdates

A

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This account is for information purposes only | For official guidance on COVID-19 please consult your region’s Public Health Agency.

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Information provided by Moriarty Lab and posted with permission.

Canadian COVID Forecast: Apr 27-May 10, 2024

SEVERE: none
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: SK
MODERATE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, QC, PEI

About 1 in 75 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
#Covid #CovidUpdates #LongCovid

This image shows a series of gauges with the Apr 27 - May 10, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right:
Canada: 3.8 - MODERATE
Alberta: 3.7 - MODERATE
British Columbia: 4.5 - MODERATE
Manitoba: 3.9 - MODERATE
New Brunswick: 3.9 - MODERATE
Newfoundland and Labrador: 4.5 - MODERATE
North: 3.7 - MODERATE
Nova Scotia: 4.2 - MODERATE
Ontario: 3.6 - MODERATE
Prince Edward Island: 3.9 - MODERATE
Quebec: 3.3 - MODERATE
Saskatchewan: 6.2 - HIGH
All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here:
(https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/)
Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red)."
To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

08:56 AM - Apr 29, 2024

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Shared with permission from Moriarty Lab:

Canadian COVID Forecast: Apr 13-26,
2024
SEVERE: none
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
MODERATE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL,
North, NS, ON, QG, PEI, SK
About 1 in 75 people in Canada are
CURRENTLY infected.
#Covid #CovidUpdates #LongCovid

This image shows a series of gauges with the Apr 13-26, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right:
Canada: 3.6 - MODERATE
Alberta: 3.3 - MODERATE
British Columbia: 4.3 - MODERATE
Manitoba: 3.7 - MODERATE
New Brunswick: 4.0 - MODERATE
Newfoundland and Labrador: 4.5 - MODERATE
North: 3.4 - MODERATE
Nova Scotia: 4.1 - MODERATE
Ontario: 3.4 - MODERATE
Prince Edward Island: 3.6 - MODERATE
Quebec: 3.1 - MODERATE
Saskatchewan: 4.7 - MODERATE
All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here:
(https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/)
Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red)."
To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

09:13 PM - Apr 14, 2024

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Reposted from Dr. Lucky Tran on Mastodon.

“UPDATE: In the US, COVID wastewater levels are now low. If you've been holding off getting healthcare or doing other indoor activities, now is one of the best times of the year to do these things more safely.”
#Covid #LongCovid #CovidUpdates

Chart: COVID-19 Wastewater Levels Are Low (US, April 2024) Wastewater Viral Activity Level shows changes in SARS-CoV-2 virus levels in wastewater compared to the baseline level for each wastewater treatment plant. This chart shows the median values across all wastewater treatment plants nationally in the U.S. Data from CDC.

04:42 PM - Apr 04, 2024 (Edited)

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Some good news this Easter Sunday!

Posted with permission from Moriarty Lab.

Canadian COVID Forecast: Mar 30-Apr 12, 2024

SEVERE: none
VERY HIGH: BC
HIGH: NB, NL, NS
MODERATE: CAN, AB, MB, North, ON, QC, PEI, SK

About 1 in 139 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.

This image shows a series of gauges with the Mar 30-Apr 12, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right:
Canada: 4.5 - MODERATE
Alberta: 3.4 - MODERATE
British Columbia: 10.6 - VERY HIGH
Manitoba: 4.7 - MODERATE
New Brunswick: 5.6 - HIGH
Newfoundland and Labrador: 6.1 - HIGH
North: 4.4 - MODERATE
Nova Scotia: 5.3 - HIGH
Ontario: 3.1 - MODERATE
Prince Edward Island: 3.9 - MODERATE
Quebec: 3.3 - MODERATE
Saskatchewan: 4.4 - MODERATE
All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here:
(https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/)
Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red)."
To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

10:53 AM - Mar 31, 2024

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Posted with permission from Moriarty Lab

Canadian COVID Forecast: Mar 16-29, 2024

SEVERE: SK
VERY HIGH: MB, NL
HIGH: CAN, AB, BC, NB, North, NS, ON, QC, PEI
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 47 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
#Covid #LongCovid #CovidUpdates

This image shows a series of gauges with the Mar 16-29, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right:
Canada: 9.0 - HIGH
Alberta: 6.8 - HIGH
British Columbia: 9.4 - HIGH
Manitoba: 13.0 - VERY HIGH
New Brunswick: 8.5 - HIGH
Newfoundland and Labrador: 11.2 - VERY HIGH
North: 9.9 - HIGH
Nova Scotia: 10.0 - HIGH
Ontario: 8.2 - HIGH
Prince Edward Island: 9.2 - HIGH
Quebec: 8.6 - HIGH
Saskatchewan: 16.1 - SEVERE
All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here:
(https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/)
Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red)."
To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

04:24 PM - Mar 17, 2024 (Edited)

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Today marks the first

International Long Covid Awareness Day

https://www.longcovidaware...
#Covid #LongCovid #CovidUpdates

Long covid awareness ribbon

03:00 PM - Mar 15, 2024

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Raising our voices on the 4th anniversary of the pandemic, March 11.

https://www.aerosoltransmi...

Canadian
Aerosol
Transmission
Coalition
aerosoltransmissioncoalition.ca
aerosoltransmissioncoalition@ gmail
March 5, 2024
The 4th Anniversary:
Raising our voices about COVID in Canada
It was four years ago -- March 11 2020. The World Health Organisation (WHO officially declared the
"novel coronavirus disease, COVID-19, a pandemic.
It's a time to raise our voices about the current state of the pandemic and to hear about the responses from those who have stepped in with preventive measures that governments and others have failed to promote.
Four years later, the pandemic is still here, although the WHO says it's no longer an emergency. The virus is still taking a toll on our healthcare, social and economic systems, and on people's lives.
Thousands of the deaths, many more infections, and some economic impacts were preventable.
Join the Canadian Aerosol Transmission Coalition in marking the fourth anniversary with a free webinar on March 11, from 1 - 2:30 pm ET.
In this first of a series,...

04:31 PM - Mar 06, 2024

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Today is National Day of Reflection.

The Day of Reflection in the United Kingdom is a day to remember those who have died during the COVID-19 pandemic and to think about those living with Long Covid.
#Covid #LongCovid #CovidUpdates

National Covid Memorial Wall

11:13 AM - Mar 03, 2024 (Edited)

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From @luckytran on Twitter.
#Covid #LongCovid #CovidUpdates

How long are you contagious with COVID-19?
Studies suggest:
➡️ Most people are infectious for ~10 days
➡️ ~80% of people test positive for 5 days after symptom onset
➡️ Only ~30% of people who test positive have a fever
➡️ Presence of symptoms is an unreliable indicator of infectiousness
➡️ Individuals can be infectious before the onset of symptoms
➡️ Asymptomatic cases represent around 20 to 40% of all infections
The best way to tell when you are not infectious anymore is to have consecutive negative tests for COVID. And if you are unable to stay home the entire time, please wear an N95 mask to prevent spreading the virus to others.
Sources:
Nat Rev Microbiol. 2023 Mar;21(3):147-161
JAMA Netw Open 2022;5(10):e2235844

09:51 AM - Mar 03, 2024 (Edited)

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U.S. SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Levels, COVID-19 Case Estimates, and
4-Week Forecast: Report for February 26, 2024, pmc19.com/data #Covid #CovidUpdates #LongCovid
Find the full report here:

https://pmc19.com/data/PMC...

1
U.S. SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Levels, COVID-19 Case Estimates, and
4-Week Forecast: Report for February 26, 2024, pmc19.com/data
Michael Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA, Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative
U.S. SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Levels,
COVID-19 Case Estimates, and 4-week Forecast
PMC19.com/data
6-month View: U.S. SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Levels, COVID-19 Case Estimates, and 4-week Forecast
PMC19.com/data
Michael Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA
Now Dain
SANSARONE
Michael Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA
•Composite Forecast
• Alt Forecast 1 Turties
•Alt Forecast 2 Cheetah
58.4%
CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR
February 26, 2024
Wastewater Levels (copies/mL.)
New Daily Cases
* of Population Infectious
New Daily Long COVID Cases
WEEKLY ESTIMATES FOR
February 26, 2024
New Weekly Cases
5,600.000
New Weekly Long COVID Cases
4-WEEK FORECAST FOR
March 25, 2024
[Wastewater Levels (copies/mL.)
New Daily Cases
353,000
0.74% (1 in 135 people)
New Daily Long COVID Cases
How Does Risk Increase with I
Social Contacts?
2024 CUMULATIVE EST...

09:28 AM - Feb 29, 2024 (Edited)

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Long Covid provides an opportunity to understand how acute infections cause chronic disease.
#Covid #CovidUpdates #LongCovid

https://www.science.org/do...

Many forms of Long Covid
Long Covid is a multisystemic disease with sequelae that affect almost all organ systems. Various putative mechanisms that underlie these sequelae are not mutually exclusive and may explain the myriad health effects seen in Long Covid. Therapeutics that target these pathways, such as antivirals, anti-inflammatory agents, microbiome restoration, and anticoagulant drugs, may ameliorate symptoms.
Cardiovascular symptoms (e.g., abnormal heart rhythm, cardiac inflam-mation, heart attacks)
- Neurologic symptoms (e.g., brain fog, headaches, dysautonomia, strokes)
Viral persistence
Immune
may cause inflam- dysregulation mation and reactivate may increase dormant viruses.
immune reactivity.
Microbiome dysbiosis may impair gut-brain signaling and metabolic regulation.
Metabolic symptoms (e.g., dyslipidemia and diabetes)
Endothelial
Neuronal
inflammation may inflammation activate coagulation may result from cascades and elicit activated microglia microthrombosis.
and immu...

07:18 AM - Feb 24, 2024 (Edited)

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Posted with permission from Moriarty Lab

Canadian COVID Forecast: Feb 17-Mar 2, 2024

SEVERE: AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, NS, PEI, SK
VERY HIGH: CAN, North, ON, QC
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 47 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.

This image shows a series of gauges with the Feb 17-Mar 2, 2024 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right:
Canada: 7.6 - VERY HIGH
Alberta: 8.1 - SEVERE
British Columbia: 9.2 - SEVERE
Manitoba: 12.8 - SEVERE
New Brunswick: 16.0 - SEVERE
Newfoundland and Labrador: 9.3 - SEVERE
North: 7.6 - VERY HIGH
Nova Scotia: 9.5 - SEVERE
Ontario: 6.7 - VERY HIGH
Prince Edward Island: 8.1 - SEVERE
Quebec: 6.1 - VERY HIGH
Saskatchewan: 9.8 - SEVERE
All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/)
Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)."
To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

07:10 PM - Feb 18, 2024 (Edited)

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From Canada Healthwatch:

Analysis of excess deaths reveals hundreds of thousands of uncounted COVID deaths across U.S.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/f...

A
Ratio of excess natural-cause to COVID-19 deaths
<1
(1, 1.251
(1.25, 1.5]
(1.5, 1.75]
(1.75, 2]
>2
Suppressed
B
Probability that the ratio of excess natural-cause to COVID-19
deaths is greater than 1
0% 75%
95%
99%
99.9%
100%

05:48 PM - Feb 07, 2024

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Source information reposted with permission from Moriarty Labs.

Canadian COVID Forecast: Feb 3-16, 2024

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 19 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.

CANADIAN COVID-19 FORECAST: February 3-16 2024
If you utilize a screen reader and would like this dashboard to be translated into a better format, please contact
@April_Sparkles

09:03 PM - Feb 04, 2024

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From Tara Moriarty: “As waste water data for Jan come in, our composite waste water-based estimates for Canada are declining too.

It's clear the peak of the wave has passed--likely somewhere around Jan 1. Hopefully waste water for all provinces will soon start showing declines like QC survey data”

400K
300K
200K
100K
Jec 4, 2021
Dec 25, 2021
Jan 15, 2022
Feb 5, 2022
Feb 26, 2022
Estimated daily infections: Model vs Waste water vs Seroreversion-adjusted seroprevalence (5 wk mid-aligned rolling averages)
CANADA
Model
Waste water
Seroreversion-adjusted seroprevalence
Mar 19, 2022
Apr 9, 2022
Apr 30, 2022
May 21, 2022
Jun 11, 2022
Jul 2, 2022
Jul 23, 2022
Aug 13, 2022
Sep 3,2022
Sep 24, 2022
Oct 15, 2022
Nov 5, 2022
Model estimates for the BA. 1 wave (Dec/21-Jan/22) are more uncertain because
Quebec survey-based surveillance data did not become available until mid-Jan/22 and because access to testing changed dramatically during this period
Nov 26, 2022
Dec 17, 2022
Jan 7,2023
After Jan/22, differences between waste water- and model-predicted daily
Jan 28, 2023
Feb 18, 2023
infections may reflect differences in the age of who is being infected, since QC survey surveillance is conducted with adults. We think waste water-estimated infections may most closely reflect infections in the w...

CovidUpdates @CovidUpdates

From Tara Moriarty of Moriarty Lab:

“ Good news:

Quebec COVID-19 infection numbers estimated by INSPQ via surveys are continuing to drop ~25%/week (since the peak on Dec 24/23).

Waste water data are slower to come in, but it's looking like most regions have been dropping consistently too.”

10:58 PM - Jan 31, 2024

11:00 PM - Jan 31, 2024 (Edited)

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From Tara Moriarty of Moriarty Lab:

“ Good news:

Quebec COVID-19 infection numbers estimated by INSPQ via surveys are continuing to drop ~25%/week (since the peak on Dec 24/23).

Waste water data are slower to come in, but it's looking like most regions have been dropping consistently too.”

1 - Estimation du nombre de nouveaux cas de
COVID-19 par semaine au Québec
Les nouveaux cas incluent les réinfections. Les marqueurs en forme d'étoile représentent une estimation statistiquement différente par rapport à la semaine précédente. Les résultats pour une semaine donnée de collecte peuvent se rapporter à une période de deux semaines (la semaine de la collecte de données et celle qui la précède).
600 000
500 000
400 000
Test positif
Semaine de colli
Test positif ou autodiagnostique

10:58 PM - Jan 31, 2024

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WHAT IS STREP A?
There are more than 90 different kinds of Streptococcus pneumonia bacteria,
Strep A is one of them and is also known as group A Streptococcus (GAS).
The vast majority of group A Strep infections are easily treatable illnesses, such as strep throat and impetigo (skin infection).
INVASIVE GROUP A
STREPTOCOCCAL (IGAS)
Occasionally these bacteria can cause much more severe and even life-
threatening diseases such as necrotizing fasciitis (flesh eating disease) and
"Streptococcal Toxic Shock
Syndrome" or sepsis (shock and prgan failure). We are seeing a record number of cases and
deaths globally.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT
WHO IS MOST AT RISK?
INVASIVE
SIGNS TO LOOK FOR
People with chronic illnesses
STREP A
that impact immunity like cancer,
Sore throat, pain with swallowing
diabetes are at higher risk. Deep cuts
without symptoms of a cold (sneezing,
and wounds also provide easier access
running nose, congestion) should warrant a strep test (rapid at clinic + culture). You
...

09:48 AM - Jan 30, 2024

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From Moriarty Labs with permission.

The Risk Scenario Estimator indicating the levels of risk in gathering at home depending on mask choices.

A table showing the estimated risks of contracting Covid in varying scenarios.
If you are unable to read this table due to low vision please let me know and I’ll ensure it’s in a format a screen reader can access. @April_Sparkles

08:11 PM - Jan 28, 2024

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Reposted from Moriarty Labs with permission.

How to have a safe gathering at home with family and friends.

Safe Gathering at Home
Prepare
Provide masks and tests
Ask folks to limit activities 1 week before
Visit virtually if unwell
Test before arriving
Protect everyone
Test before gathering
Serve fresh air
Wear your best mask
Ventilate
Open windows a bit
Use air purifiers and COZ meters
Enjoy
Wear N95 when not eating or
drinking. Provide blankets/jackets
*Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator
BREAK THE CHAIN OF INFECTION
Appreciate
Thank everyone for their
thoughtfulness, care, flexibility
Provide RAT tests to take home
Limit time indoors.
Avoid crowded outdoor areas
Wear N95 or equivalent
well-fitted masks.
COVID-19
Resources
Canada
YOU CAN PROTECT
YOURSELF & OTHERS:
N95
MASK
НЕРА
FRESH AIR +
PURIFY AIR
E VACCINES +
† BOOSTERS
Source: Covid-19 Resources Canada
((CC BY) Learn more: Covid19Resources.ca/public-resources
STAY HOME
WHEN SICK

08:06 PM - Jan 28, 2024

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In Canada, 20% excess mortality means about 1,000 premature deaths/week due to COVID-19.

Graph showing the reported % excess mortality compared to excess mortality predicted from waste water, our model, and the Canadian COVID Forecast score
Fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC)
Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index
Page 13 (Actual and model-predicted excess mortality)

10:42 AM - Jan 22, 2024

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WHAT’S NEW THIS WEEK?

About 1 in 13 people in Canada is currently infected. COVID Forecast scores in most regions are similar to the maximum previous peaks of excess mortality for the epidemic to date in Canada (~20%: SEVERE).

Graph showing estimated new daily infections for Canada, the provinces, and territories (15-day rolling averages)
Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index
Page 17 (Infections)

10:39 AM - Jan 22, 2024

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Source information reposted with permission from Moriarty Labs.

Canadian COVID Forecast: Jan 20 - Feb 2, 2024

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 13 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.

Canadian Covid Forecast Dashboard

09:55 PM - Jan 21, 2024

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The COVID19 living catalogue of guidelines collects best available recommendations on COVID19 for clinical, public health and health policy. It allows decision-makers to identify relevant recommendations for their question of interest.

https://covid19.recmap.org...

covid19.recmap.org
COVID19 Recommendations
Enter the keyword to search in recommendations
Search instructions
Recommendations
тар
List of
recommendations
Would you like to learn more about a specific population and/or intervention? You can easily find topics that interest you using our RecMap.
Explore all available COVID-19 guidelines on the eCOVID19 RecMap platform. You can filter and narrow down your search results using the search bar.
Recommendations map
Recommendations
Plain Language
Recommendations
Gateway to contextualization
Change of Care in Times of COVID-19 and Pandemic Preparedness
Looking for COVID-19 recommendations that are easy to understand? Click here to access a selection of our plain language recommendations.
See our detailed videos

03:24 PM - Jan 17, 2024

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For official guidance on COVID-19 please consult your region’s Public Health Agency guidelines | Source information reposted with permission from Moriarty Labs.

CANADIAN COVID-19 FORECAST: December 16-29, 2023
High
4 to <6
Elevated
2 to <4
Very high
6 to <8
Moderate
1 to <2
Low
<1
CAN
18.6
SEVERE
Severe
>8
10
The COVID Forecast is calculated from 3 equally weighted categories: 1) Current infections and spread; 2) Healthcare system impact; 3) Mortality. Within each category there is one sub-category for trends over the most recent week (Trends) and one sub-category for
currencoarameervalvesrelauvetoa
specified baseline (Current values).
Trends and current values are weighted equally when determining the final score for a category. All Forecast input data and sources are available here. Past Forecast scores are available in the Table below. Forecast scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red).
Past hazard index scores: SCROLL DOWN
hare
NB
Nor
NS
Dec 15.2023
19 4
260
18 8
AB
15.3
SEVERE
NB
25.4
SEVERE
NS
15....

10:08 PM - Jan 08, 2024

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