Ayan Das
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What do y’all think about Colin Allred running for the #Senate seat in #Texas in ‘24 #2024Senate #Politics #PoliticsSpoutible
08:32 AM - May 03, 2023
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Brendan Koerner
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In response to Ayan Das.
A strong candidate running against an opponent with high negatives. He'll raise a lot of money, then ultimately lose by 4-5 points—a decent achievement in a R+10 state.
09:55 AM - May 03, 2023
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Ayan Das
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Imo he might have a chance in a good national environment and good suburb / Hispanic outreach. Plus Cruz is insanely unpopular
In response to Brendan Koerner.
06:46 PM - May 03, 2023
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Brendan Koerner
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In response to Ayan Das.
Unfortunately, I just can't see any Democrat winning a statewide election in Texas given current circumstances (+10 R lean, increasing polarization, historical turnout trends). Cruz beat O'Rourke by 2.5 points in 2018, when conditions were as good as they'll get for Ds. Would love to be wrong.
07:46 PM - May 03, 2023
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Ayan Das
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In response to Brendan Koerner.
I don’t disagree about it being hard for a statewide Dem victory in TX. But Trump only won it by 5 points last time. And the latest iteration of the Cook PVI puts TX at R+5 funnily enough.

And Beto actually improved over the 2018 nominee for gov despite the R national environment in 2022
10:42 PM - May 03, 2023
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Ayan Das
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In response to Brendan Koerner.
I still have TX as lean R, but Allred winning is not impossible. And I bet Cruz’s favorability is even worse after the Cancun incident and the 2020 election denial
10:43 PM - May 03, 2023
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