Ayan Das
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What do y’all think about Colin Allred running for the #Senate seat in #Texas in ‘24 #2024Senate #Politics #PoliticsSpoutible
08:32 AM - May 03, 2023
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Brendan Koerner
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In response to Ayan Das.
A strong candidate running against an opponent with high negatives. He'll raise a lot of money, then ultimately lose by 4-5 points—a decent achievement in a R+10 state.
09:55 AM - May 03, 2023
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Ayan Das
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In response to Brendan Koerner.
Imo he might have a chance in a good national environment and good suburb / Hispanic outreach. Plus Cruz is insanely unpopular
06:46 PM - May 03, 2023
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Brendan Koerner
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In response to Ayan Das.
Unfortunately, I just can't see any Democrat winning a statewide election in Texas given current circumstances (+10 R lean, increasing polarization, historical turnout trends). Cruz beat O'Rourke by 2.5 points in 2018, when conditions were as good as they'll get for Ds. Would love to be wrong.
07:46 PM - May 03, 2023
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Ayan Das
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I still have TX as lean R, but Allred winning is not impossible. And I bet Cruz’s favorability is even worse after the Cancun incident and the 2020 election denial
In response to Brendan Koerner.
10:43 PM - May 03, 2023
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Brendan Koerner
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In response to Ayan Das.
I hear you. I'm pegging it as Likely R: Abbott won re-election last year by 11 points, and it's hard for me to believe Cruz's negatives (even post-Cancun) and Allred's potential advantages (vs. a diminishing Beto) are enough to erase that margin. But I'll be curious to see how well Allred campaigns.
10:14 AM - May 04, 2023
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