Ayan Das
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What do y’all think about Colin Allred running for the #Senate seat in #Texas in ‘24 #2024Senate #Politics #PoliticsSpoutible
08:32 AM - May 03, 2023
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Brendan Koerner
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In response to Ayan Das.
A strong candidate running against an opponent with high negatives. He'll raise a lot of money, then ultimately lose by 4-5 points—a decent achievement in a R+10 state.
09:55 AM - May 03, 2023
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Ayan Das
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In response to Brendan Koerner.
Imo he might have a chance in a good national environment and good suburb / Hispanic outreach. Plus Cruz is insanely unpopular
06:46 PM - May 03, 2023
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Brendan Koerner
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Unfortunately, I just can't see any Democrat winning a statewide election in Texas given current circumstances (+10 R lean, increasing polarization, historical turnout trends). Cruz beat O'Rourke by 2.5 points in 2018, when conditions were as good as they'll get for Ds. Would love to be wrong.
In response to Ayan Das.
07:46 PM - May 03, 2023
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Ayan Das
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In response to Brendan Koerner.
I still have TX as lean R, but Allred winning is not impossible. And I bet Cruz’s favorability is even worse after the Cancun incident and the 2020 election denial
10:43 PM - May 03, 2023
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Brendan Koerner
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In response to Ayan Das.
I hear you. I'm pegging it as Likely R: Abbott won re-election last year by 11 points, and it's hard for me to believe Cruz's negatives (even post-Cancun) and Allred's potential advantages (vs. a diminishing Beto) are enough to erase that margin. But I'll be curious to see how well Allred campaigns.
10:14 AM - May 04, 2023
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Ayan Das
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In response to Brendan Koerner.
I don’t disagree about it being hard for a statewide Dem victory in TX. But Trump only won it by 5 points last time. And the latest iteration of the Cook PVI puts TX at R+5 funnily enough.

And Beto actually improved over the 2018 nominee for gov despite the R national environment in 2022
10:42 PM - May 03, 2023
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